DO NOT FORGET FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS....

Destruction in Bakhmut

Summary  

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has led to immense devastation, with over 1.5 million soldiers killed or wounded. Despite Ukraine’s valiant resistance, Russia continues to escalate attacks. A settlement remains elusive due to entrenched positions: Ukraine insists on NATO membership and territorial integrity, while Russia demands annexation of unconquered parts of Ukraine. The war’s end demands compromise—Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions; Russia must drop its claims to territory and regional capitals that it does not even occupy. Trump’s unpredictable role complicates matters, yet he is trying for peace. With a face to face meeting between Trump and Putin now likely, the only right time to make a balanced and durable peace – is now.

KIEV AND PHUKET—

The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, was dramatic from the start. Ukraine was not ready, neither technically nor organizationally. Moreover, President Zelensky – despite numerous warnings from the West – reassured the people that Russia was also not ready for a full-fledged war, and would not dare attack.

President Putin, meeting with top Western officials less than a month before, assured everyone Russia was not planning to occupy a country inhabited by "the Ukrainian people, fraternal to the Russians," repeating the phrase to President Macron just three weeks before invading.

President Putin had, however, long made it clear that he would not accept further expansion of NATO into Ukraine. Already by 2008, the USA's Ambassador Burns in Moscow wrote to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin) [and is widely seen as an existential threat].”

The Government of Ukraine, for its part, rightly saw this as their own sovereign decision. While neutrality might be a prudent choice, imposed neutrality would not do. The USA and other NATO members remained unwilling to even discuss Russia's security concerns with Moscow, and strongly supported Ukraine.

On February 24, 2022, more than 150,000 Russian troops entered and began annexing further territory than that already annexed in 2014, including Crimea and parts of the east. Troops of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, controlled by Russia, also joined the hostilities.

At the peak – by March 2022 – Russia occupied 27% of Ukraine's territory (together with Donbass and Crimea), but by December this figure had dropped to 18%. Putin and his generals failed to capture Kyiv and establish a puppet government, or achieve later goals including annexing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and creating a land corridor to Transnistria.

By October 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to liberate about 50% of Kherson region (along with the main city of Kherson, though Russia is currently still trying to cut it off), as well as almost 100% of Kharkiv region. Facing this defeat, Putin announced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia into Russia – despite half of their territory remaining under Ukrainian control. About 70% of their population either still lives in the Ukrainian-controlled parts or has moved to central Ukraine.

The Costs

Losses on both sides are enormous. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, Russia has had a million killed or seriously wounded, at the front, and Ukraine approximately a half million. These numbers are disputed but most agree that, altogether, one and a half million, mostly men, have been killed or badly wounded. The UN estimates that over 14,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed including at least 700 children, 35,000 wounded, 6.6 to 6.8 million refugees disbursed within Europe and 7 million more internally displaced. Mass graves and bodies with obvious signs of torture have been discovered in the de-occupied territories, though this is also disputed.

Russia's actions were sharply condemned by the majority of the world's states. UN General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 recognized Russia as an aggressor state and called on it to withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine. 141 states voted for the resolution, 5 voted against, 35 abstained and 12 were absent. There was however, a notable reluctance among some non-Western powers, including China, India and Brazil, to take Ukraine's side.

Russia's military actions led to a precipitous decline in the Ukrainian economy, cessation of air and sea transport, sharply rising food and energy prices. Russia's economy, on the other hand, more successfully withstood the shock of Western sanctions and was even stimulated by a huge investment in arms production. However, this has now caused inflation with Central Bank interest rates at a historically high 21%.

Increased attacks in 2025

After a successful autumn campaign of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began experiencing a severe shortage of weapons, ammunition and ammunition, contributing to the loss of conquered territories. However, the losses have not been catastrophic. In 2024, the zone of Russian control increased by only 0.5% of the total area of Ukraine.

Beginning in January 2025, Russia sharply increased the number of missiles and drones launched at cities in Ukraine, primarily Kyiv, launching 29,000 attack drones by July, 11 times more than in the same period in 2024. A record 6,600 drones were launched in July alone. While 5,600 were shot down or neutralized by electronic warfare, 1,000 got through.... In addition, over the first seven months of 2025, Russia launched 951 missiles at Ukraine, of which 56% were shot down or neutralized. In June alone, Russia fired 238. Ukrainian air defense forces now face an unprecedented volume of attacks, and constantly changing enemy tactics. Without more anti-missile/drone capacity, more and more civilians are being killed and injured, including in Kiev, while the gruesome losses at the front grind on.

Why not settle?

Assessing the almost catastrophic situation, one might ask: “Wouldn't it be better for Ukraine to meet Putin's demands, by abandoning plans to join NATO and ceding territory?” 

However, it is not so easy. In the fall of 2018, the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine approved a bill amending the Constitution, enshrining the strategic course for Ukraine's full membership in the European Union and NATO. To change the Constitution would now require two sessions of Parliament, with the abolition of the relevant article gaining at least 2/3 of the votes on the second reading, or more than 300 out of 450 deputies. This is very difficult.

As for ceding territory, Putin lays claim to four complete regions, yet half of Donetsk is under Ukrainian control and nearly half of Kherson and Zaporizhia, including their capitals. The great majority of the residents of Kherson City (300,000), and Zaporizhia city (750,000), do not want to fall under Russia control or become Russians. After daily bombing, family and friends killed and homes destroyed, they will not welcome their occupiers. If it were decided to transfer these regions to Russia entirely, Ukraine would have to carry out a mass evacuation, a difficult task logistically, and politically – nearly impossible.

Further Impediments to Peace

It is a sad truth that wars are harder to stop than to start and that the longer they continue, the harder it becomes. If Ukraine was to agree now to what are much like Russia's original demands, it would seem that the war was fought for nothing. Every second Ukrainian has lost a family member or friend. Every fourth Ukrainian family has, under Orthodox or Catholic icons in their home, photographs of their killed or wounded, with memorial candles burning.

Russia, for its part, feels it is advancing, albeit slowly, particularly around Pokrovsk, and is hitting Kiev harder than ever, thus they have been less in a mood to negotiate. European leaders mostly feel that Russia must not be allowed to impose its will on Ukraine. As Russia would like to forge a new relationship with Europe, one not based on hostility, a peace agreement largely on Russia's terms would neither satisfy Europe nor meet Russia's own aspirations for real detente.

The Trump Factor

Matters are now especially complicated by President Trump, in at least three different ways.

Firstly, his boast last year that he could end the war in 24 hours left him much weakened as a negotiator. Even after he revised this timeline several times, Russia saw he was still in a hurry. He has also completely reversed US policy on peace in Ukraine, albeit more realistically. While in late April 2022, the USA and UK strongly advised Ukraine not to make the peace deal being negotiated with Russia in Istanbul, including non-membership in NATO, now – one and a half million dead and wounded later – President Trump is pushing Ukraine to make much that same deal, with US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, calling the Instabul Draft Protocol of 2022 a "guidepost" for future negotiations.

Secondly, Ukraine if it is to agree to remain neutral, will require some sort of 'security guarantee' – essentially a guarantee of backup should fighting resume, and most likely a peace-keeping force for years to come. While this needs to involve the USA in some way, as chief sponsor of a proxy war, Trump's unpredictable nature makes it difficult to pin anything down in what will be a very delicate formula.

Thirdly, Presidents Trump and Putin sometimes seem to be on a collision course in their intensifying contest of wills. The recent (supposed and silly), deployment of two US nuclear submarines to somewhere near Russia is an example. This could overshadow the urgent need to get a workable peace agreement. President Trump, unable to impose his will on President Putin, may even be tempted to try to 'win' militarily, with the potential for Armageddon. Yet the two leaders are also reportedly close to actually meeting face to face to discuss a solution, possibly next week, possibly in United Arab Emirates, hopefully followed by a trilateral meeting together with President Zelensky. Could this be the key opening? Or will it come to naught?

What Way Forward?

While neither Ukraine nor Russia may be ready to compromise sufficiently to stop the war, some elements – similar to the draft Istanbul Protocol – will undoubtedly remain on the table. Each side is also guilty of placing an impossible bargaining chip on that table, two big chips that represent «aspirational defiance» and are major obstacles to peace.

Ukraine's «aspirational defiance» chip is to join NATO, the fundamental reason for Russia's decision to invade again. Joining NATO is not going to be possible if there is to be a peace, nor can a country at war join NATO (or NATO would be automatically at war). Sooner or later, two thirds of Ukrainian parliamentarians will come to realize this bitter truth. They need change only a few words, perhaps, in the constitution, to make peace possible. Importantly, the Kremlin has stated several times that Ukraine has a “sovereign right to join the EU,”  so that part could remain in the constitution. Ukraine could then focus on qualifying for EU membership and future prosperity, rather than on joining an alliance that has already brought them to ruin.

Russia‘s «aspirational defiance» chip is to demand to annex unconquered territories, merely because they have already claimed them under Russian law. This is completely unrealistic, and a deliberate obstacle to peace. However, promisingly – in early August – Russia indicated that both Ukraine and Russia might refer to the other halves of these territories as 'temporarily occupied,' neither formally recognizing the other's claim – and just leave it at that, at least for a long while. This is a welcome glimmer of sanity.

Finally, a security guarantee will have to be provided by a representative selection of states, not only US allies or Russian allies, but a combination of the two together with more neutral states. This is the very spirit of a UN Peace-Keeping Mission (such as has remained in Cyprus since 1964). Despite US antagonism to the United Nations, the UN Security Council remains the only body where Russia, the United States and China all sit, can exercise vetoes, and has the experience and legitimacy to deploy and maintain such a complex operation.

Ernest Hemingway asked "For Whom the Bell Tolls?" And his answer was, it tolls for you. Elderly Europeans will remember the time when their own cities were destroyed and millions killed. Today, Ukraine is the front line in another such European war. It must be ended. Ukraine will not be able to simply capitulate to Russia's demands, nor will it be able to insist on everything it wants. A true and lasting peace will require compromise on both sides and for crying out loud, they should do it now.

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Prof. I. G. Mantsurov is a distinguished Ukrainian economist, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, and a Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. He currently serves as Ambassador at Large and Country Director of the Representative Office of the International Human Rights Commission (IHRC.) Dr. Mantsurov has worked with UN agencies, including the IOM, ILO, and World Bank, advises the Ukrainian government on national economic strategies, lectures abroad and has authored over 250 publications. Dr. Mantsurov was seriously wounded by shrapnel in his stomach early this year, while leading a survey of destruction near the front. After a lengthy convalescence, he fully recovered and has since returned to the east to lead another such survey.

Dr. William Paton, a Canadian, is a former UN official at the Assistant-Secretary General level. He served as leader of the UN System in Congo, Tajikistan, and briefly in Somalia; as Director of the UN's Pandemic Influenza Contingency based in Geneva; Director of Country Programs globally at the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria in Geneva; and Deputy Director General/Special Envoy of the International Development Law Organization based in Rome. He has also worked for the Chinese Academy of Science in Beijing. He lives in China and Thailand.